The Centre for Policy Modelling
Using agent-based simulations and machine learning to understand issues of policy significance.
About
About our research
Established in 1991, the Centre for Policy Modelling (CfPM) has been at the forefront of complexity science applied to social issues.
We sit at the meeting point of computer science, policy and social science – often being the bridge between these.
In particular, we are experts in a particular kind of simulation called agent-based modelling, which is a crossover between artificial intelligence and sociology. It allows us to explore how people might react or interact in the light of events and their environment. This has strong policy relevance, especially for understanding how things might go surprisingly wrong (or right) when there are humans in the mix.
The approach can be used to consider a wide range of interdependent aspects - including economic, social and environmental - and be used to explore the possible impacts of policies in a wide range of fields, including trade, taxation and health.
For more information about the CfPM’s work see our website.
Past projects
We work with a range of public bodies, including the European Union (EU) and the UK Government, as well as private clients.
Our past work includes:
- The Social Complexity of Immigration and Diversity, where the CfPM was the bridge between the Department of Theoretical Physics and the quantitative social scientists of the Cathie Marsh Centre at the University of Manchester. Funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
- Social Science Aspects of Fisheries for the 21st Century (SAF21), a Marie-Curie innovative training network project to get more people with social science expertise into fisheries management
- Insight to Intervention, a joint project with Manchester City Council looking at their data on families that have multiple needs
- Intelligent Marketing Integrated System, working with the Henley Centre for Forecasting
- Freshwater integrated resource management with agents, for the European Commission
current projects
Currently funded projects include:
- Populism and Civic Engagement, a three-year Horizon 2020 project understanding the dynamics and causes of populism, which is led by the CfPM and funded by the EU
- Towards realistic computational models of social influence dynamics, an Open Research Area project looking at how people influence each other, which is part-funded by the Economic and Social Research Council in the UK
Publications and contacts
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Key publications
Books and academic papers
- F. Squazzoni, F, Polhill, JG, Edmonds, B, Ahrweiler, P and Antosz, P et al (2020) Computational models that matter during a global pandemic outbreak: A call to action. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation. 23(2)
- van Voorn, GAK, Polhill, JG, Edmonds, B and Hofstede, GJ (2019) Agent-Based Modelling for Resilience. Ecological Complexity
- Edmonds, B et al (2019) Different Modelling Purposes. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 22(3), pp.6-6
- Little, C, McLean, D, Crockett, K and Edmonds, B (2020) A Semantic and Syntactic Similarity Measure for Political Tweets, IEEE Access, 8:154095-154113
- Calder, M et al (2018) Computational modelling for decision-making: where, why, what, who and how. Royal Society Open Science
- Hales, D and Edmonds, B (2019) Intragenerational Cultural Evolution and Ethnocentrism. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 63(5):1283-1309
policy Reports
- Government Office for Science (2018) Computational Modelling: Technological Futures
- Downing, TE et al (2003) Climate Change and the Demand for Water, Research Report, Stockholm Environment Institute Oxford Office, Oxford
- The Design And Use Of Integrated And Agent-Based Models For Freshwater Resource Management.
Discussion papers
- Open, Contingent, Adaptive and Reactive Resilience – using ABM and other tools to facilitate our collective survival in an uncertain world.
- The Systematic Comparison of Agent-Based Policy Models - It’s time we got our act together!
- What more is needed for Democratically Accountable Modelling?
- Using agent-based simulation to inform policy – what could possibly go wrong?
Contact us
You can contact individual members of the team through their staff profiles, including leading researchers Prof Bruce Edmonds and Dr Ruth Meyer.
For general enquiries, please contact the centre’s director Prof Bruce Edmonds.