Minimum Unit Pricing has minimal impact on alcohol-related crime, research suggests

The research was commissioned by Public Health Scotland

Minimum Unit Pricing has had a minimal impact on alcohol-related crime in Scotland, indicates new research conducted by University criminologists.

The study, published by Public Health Scotland and carried out by Manchester Metropolitan University’s Crime and Wellbeing Big Data Centre, looked at the effects of Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) in Scotland following its introduction in May 2018.

It found that alcohol-related crime, disorder and public nuisance in Scotland were found to be going down prior to MUP, but there was no statistically significant change after its introduction. This was also true of non-alcohol-related crimes such as drug-related crime.

Jon Bannister, Professor of Criminology and Head of the Crime and Wellbeing Big Data Centre, said: “Whilst off-trade alcohol sales in Scotland fell following the introduction of Minimum Unit Pricing, this study finds that reduction in sales had minimal impact on the levels of alcohol-related crime, disorder and public nuisance reported in Scotland.

“Drug-related crime appears to have been similarly unaffected, with no increase seen around the introduction of MUP.

“On the whole, the limited discernible impact of MUP on alcohol-related crime, disorder and public nuisance suggests that the reduction in off-trade alcohol sales that followed implementation is below that required to deliver a reduction in crime. Or, if crime did reduce, it has done so at a scale that the evaluation could not identify.”

The Crime and Wellbeing Big Data Centre delivers research with a range of partners into crime, policing, justice and health and well-being that is underpinned by methodological innovation and the development of secure and intelligent data systems.

Its current research includes projects on data-informed policing, violence reduction, knife crime and social inequalities.

Whilst off-trade alcohol sales in Scotland fell following the introduction of Minimum Unit Pricing, this study finds that reduction in sales had minimal impact on the levels of alcohol-related crime, disorder and public nuisance reported in Scotland.

Researchers from the Big Data Centre analysed Police Scotland data from January 2015 to January 2020, including the 21 months after MUP was implemented. Additional data provided by Greater Manchester Police allowed the researchers to compare alcohol-related crime and disorder in Greater Glasgow (with MUP in place) and Greater Manchester (without MUP). 

Limited changes were observed across types of crime, across local authority areas in Scotland, and in the relationship between important socio-economic characteristics and alcohol-related crime and disorder.

 Dr Karl Ferguson, Public Health Intelligence Adviser at Public Health Scotland, said: “Understanding the impact of MUP on social harms including crime and public safety is an important aspect of the overall evaluation.

“The findings of this research are in line with previous Public Health Scotland studies which reported limited evidence of increased theft or illicit substance use as a result of MUP. These studies included research into how MUP affected small retailers, people drinking at harmful levels, and children and young people.”

The research findings were covered extensively by BBC News, The Times and other media outlets.